Why Is India So Confident About Its Relationship With Russia? Have Things Changed?

 

Introduction:-

         India & Russia have a very old and reliable relationship. Even in the USSR-dominated era, India was involved in many strategic ties with the USSR including the 1971 war between India and Pakistan where the USSR played a crucial role. This blog explores the reasons behind India's assured stance toward Russia and examines whether recent development between these two nations will affect their ties. 

History:-

         Russia and India have shared a close and long-lasting partnership since the USSR era. Which most crucial pillar of their trust was the support of the USSR to India during the Indo-Pak War in 1971. The other fields where Russia and India have worked together are Trade, Military cooperation, Space, Geopolitical alignment, and Crude oil.

         1) The Indo-Pak War 1971:-

 

The 1971 Indo-pak was a historical war in which Pakistan surrendered and it led to the division of Pakistan and the formation of a new country- Bangladesh. USSR played an important role in this war and supported India through:- 

       1). Baking India at the UN:- The Soviet Union supported India in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) by vetoing resolutions calling for a ceasefire and withdrawal of Indian forces, which could have pressured India to halt its military operations.

       2). Military assistance:- The Soviet Union deployed nuclear-armed naval forces in the Indian Ocean to counterbalance the U.S. Seventh Fleet, which had moved towards the Bay of Bengal. This Soviet naval presence deterred potential U.S. intervention in support of Pakistan and supported India's maritime strategy.

       3). Intelligence Sharing:- Soviets shared their military Intelligence regarding Pakistan's military capabilities and also the assistance the U.S. and China provided to Pakistan. 

Hence this multi-level support of the Soviet nation to India played a major role in creating a winning situation for India. The strong Indo-Soviet partnership during this period laid the groundwork for the enduring India-Russia relationship that continues to influence regional dynamics today.

         2) Trade And Economic Cooperation:-

             

India and Russia have a very strong and diversified Trade relationship. The Trade between these nations is multi-faceted as it includes sectors like Oil and Energy, Military hardware, agrochemicals and technology. 

Both nations have signed multiple Trade agreements such as the Eastern Economic Forum and created Institutions like the Indo-Russian Intergovernmental Commission (IRIGC). Which has led to an increase in Trade between both nations since the 2000s. 

India is also the biggest importer of Russian military weapons which also deepens the ties between them. Where India has recently also bought a Russia-made S400 missile defence system even after the threat of implications of sanctions from the U.S. Government. 

The Trade volume has also seen a significant rise from 1.5 Billion Dollars in 2000 to 15 Billion Dollars in 2024 where the majority of the portion is of Oil and Defence related Trade. 

           3) Military cooperation:-

India and Russia have a trusted and long-lasting military cooperation that has existed for several decades. This partnership is characterized by significant defence deals, joint military exercises, technology transfers, and strategic consultations.

In terms of military Trade deals the above graph clearly shows that Indian forces purchase huge amounts of Russian-made weapons. Major deals like the purchase of Sukhoi fighter jets, S400 missile defence system and T-90 tanks highlight this collaboration.

Russian and Indian forces also perform Regular joint exercises such as INDRA NAVY, INDRA ARMY, and AVIA INDRA are conducted between the armed forces of both nations to enhance interoperability and combat readiness.

Hence, Military cooperation plays a strong role in building strong relationships with both nations.

           4) Geopolitical Alignment:-

Historically India has always tried to be not aligned which allows India to maintain a balanced relationship with Russia and Western countries which also favour Russia because India plays a major role in balancing Western influence and maintaining multi-polarity in geopolitics. 

These conditions produce cooperation between both nations in various forums such as BRICS and SCO, where leaders of both nations interact and plan their plans.

Russia also plays a major role in maintaining an understanding between India and China which is important for India as China has immersed as a major challenge for India.

Hence the deep Geopolitical alignment of both countries helps in maintaining their strategic relationship.

             5) Diplomatic support:-

Historically Russia has provided Diplomatic support to India in many cases such as during the Indo-Pak War Russia vetoed the decision made by the UN Security Council which eventually put pressure on the Indian government.

Russia also showed Diplomatic support to the Indian nuclear program in the UNSC which ultimately helped India in becoming a nuclear-armed country.

Russia also provides support in providing a permanent seat to India in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).

                6)Domestic Support:-

One of the major reasons for this long-lasting partnership between India and Russia is the domestic support to Russia from the major population of Indian youth. This leads to an increase in the confidence of the Indian government to strengthen their cooperation with the Russian government.

Has Things Changed?

In recent years there have been various events that impacted the relationship between both countries. Although India and Russia still cooperate in various international forums, recently the Russian Federation has shown a greater shift towards China which has led to an increase in the cooperation between the Chinese communist regime and Russian autocrats.

The major reasons which lead to these changes are:- 

       1) Western Sanctions:- 

Western countries have applied huge sanctions on Russia's economy amid the Ukraine war. The impact of sanctions against Russia, particularly after the Ukraine conflict, poses challenges for India, especially in terms of defence and energy cooperation. India has to navigate these sanctions while maintaining its relationship with Russia.

These sanctions have forced Russia to look towards China for Economic and Trade support. Which makes Russia more dependent on the Chinese communist regime.

         2)Diversification of India's weapons import:-

File Image- Wikipedia Dassault Rafael 

As we know in the late 90s Russia was the primary weapons supplier for India. India purchased many assault rifles, Fighter aircraft and tanks from the Russian Federation but now India is increasingly diversifying its defence procurement sources, including partnerships with the U.S., France, and Israel. This diversification might reduce India's dependence on Russian defence supplies over time.

In recent years India has also focused on self-reliance on defence equipment by indigenously developing defence items fighter aircraft and even aircraft carriers.

           3) Change In Global Alignment:-

Shifts in global alliances, especially India's growing ties with the U.S. and other Western countries have created a negative impact on the relations with Russia. 

India's participation in forums like the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), could also influence the dynamics of the India-Russia relationship.

In recent years we can see that Western countries become successful in poaching India and creating a major void in relation between these two Asian countries.

             4) Russian dependence on China:-

Source:- Wikipedia- Russia-china Relations

Russia's deepening dependence on China for economic, energy, and military needs has significant implications for India. This makes it harder for India to maintain its balancing approach towards Russia and Western countries because China imposes a huge threat to India's integrity.

Conclusion:-

India’s confidence in its relationship with Russia is grounded in historical ties, strategic partnerships, economic cooperation, geopolitical alignment, and domestic political support. However, recent challenges for both countries such as international sanctions, evolving global alliances, and shifts in defence and energy procurement could affect this relationship. Monitoring these changes is crucial for understanding the future dynamics between India and Russia.

Although even in the hard times of the Russian-Ukraine war when the whole world was opposing Russian actions on Ukraine India followed the neutral approach. Even after the West has applied sanctions on Russia India continued to buy Russian oil and gas which clearly shows that both the countries have capabilities of retaining their relationship even after so many challenges.